What is President Trump actually doing with respect to Iran right now? What is the real plan?
If you look closely at the chaos unfolding over the last 48 hours, you will see a massive internal revolt. On one side, you have a populist, “America First” base demanding we stay out of a prolonged conflict in Iran. On the other side, the foreign policy establishment is working overtime to force the administration’s hand.
What we are witnessing is a textbook effort by the permanent state architecture to box Trump in—but they are severely underestimating his willingness to break their rules.
The Establishment’s Playbook: Boxing in the President
The establishment relies on a specific sequence of events to force a president into war: weaponize intelligence, drop a massive media narrative, and have their political operatives demand immediate escalation. Look at how perfectly the pieces were laid out this weekend:
- The Sensation: The Department of Justice unsealed a massive federal complaint exposing an active, IRGC-linked assassination plot targeting Ivanka Trump at her Florida enclave. The suspect, Mohammad Baqer Saad al-Saadi, had literal blueprints of her home in an effort to avenge the 2020 Qassem Soleimani strike.
- The Media Timing: While al-Saadi was actually arrested and extradited from Turkey over a week ago, the details were strategically dropped to the press right now—just as historic, back-channel peace negotiations were reaching a boiling point.
- The Establishment Push: Within hours of the news break, the hawkish wing of the foreign policy establishment pounced. Former CIA Director and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo took to social media to blast Trump’s emerging framework, claiming a peaceful resolution came straight out of the “Obama playbook” and demanding the administration go after Iran full-force.
The strategy is obvious: exploit a highly personal, literal threat to Trump’s family to emotionally force him into a corner where diplomacy is no longer politically viable.
The Reality on the Ground
Despite the massive pressure campaign to force a direct military escalation, the administration is navigating an incredibly tight diplomatic tightrope. The actual framework being negotiated looks vastly different from the establishment’s narrative:
The Establishment’s Narrative
The Actual Negotiation Framework
“Rewarding the IRGC”
The US maritime blockade on Iranian ports remains in full force and effect until an agreement is officially certified and signed.
“Unconditional Surrender to Tehran”
The proposed deal mandates a strict 60-day truce, requiring Iran to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz and completely waive transit tolls.
“A Fractured America First Policy”
Trump is actively bypassing traditional hawks to secure a regional framework alongside Gulf allies (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) to stabilize global energy markets.
“The deal being floated with Iran seems straight out of the Wendy Sherman–Robert Malley–Ben Rhodes playbook… Not remotely America First.” — Mike Pompeo
Why the “Box-In” Strategy Will Fail
The establishment’s biggest mistake is assuming Donald Trump will play by their traditional rules of engagement. They thought that by exposing a direct threat to his daughter, he would abandon his populist mandate to wind down foreign entanglements and instead launch a full-scale war.
Instead, Trump is pushing back. While he publically assured hawks that the military option remains on the table and the naval blockade won’t lift by an inch until a deal is signed, he is simultaneously pressing forward with the Pakistan-led mediation. He even skipped major family events this weekend, citing the critical “turns in the international community” to keep his team focused on closing the deal.
The establishment wants a permanent war to secure their own power. Trump wants a certified, signed deal that opens global shipping lanes and protects American interests without sacrificing more lives. The Deep State is trying its oldest tricks to box him in—but Trump has no intention of being boxed.
Written with the help of AI.
Writing by Dr. Dannielle Blumenthal 